Bitcoin (BTC) might be in for a return to ranges not seen since earlier than its 2020 bull market if historical past repeats itself.
That was in keeping with new evaluation launched on Could 24, which studied Bitcoin’s interplay with its 200-week shifting common (WMA).
Bitcoin ground goal might be between $15,500 and $19,000
In a Twitter thread, fashionable dealer and analyst Rekt Capital defined how BTC/USD might behave ought to it fall to retest the 200WMA.
A lifeline all through Bitcoin’s historical past, the 200WMA is a continuously rising line of final assist which has by no means been definitively damaged.
At present sitting at round $22,000, knowledge from Cointelegraph Markets Professional and TradingView reveals, the extent continues to behave as a line within the sand relating to bear markets.
In instances previous, Rekt Capital notes, Bitcoin has “depraved” beneath the 200WMA — briefly capitulating earlier than rising again above, permitting it to stay as assist and never as an alternative flip to resistance.
These wicks, nonetheless, have concerned as much as 28% of spot value, which means that ought to the same wick happen now, Bitcoin would find yourself at $15,500.
“BTC tends to wick -14% to -28% beneath the 200-MA. And because the $BTC 200-MA now represents the value level of ~$22000… A -14% draw back wick beneath the 200-MA would lead to a ~$19000 Bitcoin,” Rekt Capital wrote.
“And if BTC have been to repeat the March 2020 draw back wicking depth beneath the 200-MA $BTC would revisit the ~$15500 value level.”
“Listen” beneath $23,000
As Cointelegraph reported, a lot has been fabricated from Bitcoin value motion at present in comparison with March 2020 on the peak of the COVID-19 cross-market crash.
Associated: Bitcoin dives to fill CME hole amid declare new all-time highs will take 2 years
Rekt Capital moreover examined historic drawdowns from all-time highs and Bitcoin’s “dying crosses” this month, producing a BTC value goal of $22,700 — nearly precisely on the present 200WM.
“BTC is slowly approaching the 200-MA Traditionally, the 200-MA tends to supply incredible alternatives with outsized ROI for long-term $BTC traders (inexperienced circles),” he added alongside a chart exhibiting interactions.
“Ought to BTC certainly attain the 200-MA assist… It might be clever to concentrate.”
Fellow analyst PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow BTC value fashions, has additionally lengthy championed the position of the 200WMA as assist.
The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially mirror the views of Cointelegraph.com. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, it is best to conduct your personal analysis when making a call.